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Oil Ticks Higher as Traders Await Signing of US-Iran Deal

Oil prices are climbing as traders question the stability of the peace agreement. Despite this, oil is still positioned for a second consecutive weekly drop. Markets remain volatile as a deadline for the deal approaches.

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What changed

New reports indicate oil is on track for a second weekly decline despite recent price increases.

Live updates

  1. Oil Prices Rise Amid US-Iran Deal Uncertainty

    Oil prices are climbing as traders question the stability of the peace agreement. Despite this, oil is still positioned for a second consecutive weekly drop. Markets remain volatile as a deadline for the deal approaches.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • President Trump set a 1am GMT deadline for the Iran deal.
    • The S&P 500 Index rose 1.67%.
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.24%.
    • The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 2.79%.
    • June E-mini S&P futures rose 1.72%.
    • The FTSE dropped 82 points to 10,354.
    confidence 80%

  2. Oil Prices Rise as Traders Weigh US-Iran Deal Prospects

    Oil prices have fluctuated following an interim peace deal between the US and Iran. While prices initially fell as tankers returned to the Strait of Hormuz, West Texas Intermediate recently rose 1.7% to settle near $94 a barrel. Traders are currently reacting to conflicting signals regarding the deal.

    What's confirmed:

    • The US and Iran reached an interim peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran reached a tentative agreement.
    • Tankers have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz to restart the flow of crude.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • West Texas Intermediate rose 1.7% to settle near $94 a barrel.
    • Traders are parsing discordant signals on the prospects of the US-Iran peace deal.
    confidence 90%

  3. Oil Prices Slide as US and Iran Agree to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

    Global stock markets rallied and oil prices dropped following a deal between the US and Iran. The agreement aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end a 15-week conflict. The Dow reached a record close as inflation fears eased.

    What's confirmed:

    • The US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
    • Global stock markets rallied and oil prices dropped after the agreement.
    • The Dow ended with a record close.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • The deal marks the end of a 15-week conflict.
    • The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.
    confidence 90%

  4. Oil Volatility Persists as US-Iran Deal Hangs Over Supply Outlook

    Crude prices fluctuated near $75 Thursday as traders weighed a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement against lingering supply risks. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed, leaving hundreds of ships stranded, while analysts debate whether any deal will quickly restore Gulf oil flows. Markets remain cautious despite early optimism, with US officials warning of potential enforcement actions.

    What's confirmed:

    • Crude oil prices hover near $75 per barrel Thursday, reflecting cautious optimism over a preliminary US-Iran peace deal.
    • Hundreds of ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic, with no immediate relief even if a deal is signed.
    • Analysts warn supply relief from a Hormuz reopening could take months, not days, due to logistical and political hurdles.
    • US officials have signaled readiness to resume strikes if Iran violates any terms of the accord, adding to market uncertainty.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • A single source suggests oil may slide further if the Hormuz reopening trade accelerates, though no secondary confirmation exists.
    • Unverified reports claim US President Trump has privately directed the Pentagon to prepare contingency plans for Hormuz enforcement, but no official statement has been issued.
    confidence 88%

  5. Oil climbs as traders wait for US-Iran deal signing amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty

    Crude prices rose Thursday after a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement eased tensions, though traders remain cautious about the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Oil had earlier fallen sharply on hopes for a deal, but prices now hover near $75 as markets await formal signing. Hundreds of ships still sit stranded in the Persian Gulf, and analysts warn supply relief may take months even if the strait fully reopens. US President Trump has signaled readiness to resume strikes if Iran violates the accord.

    What's confirmed:

    • The US and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end the war, with traders reacting to the potential for oil supply relief.
    • Oil prices remain over 10% higher than pre-conflict levels despite recent declines, reflecting lingering supply disruptions.
    • Hundreds of ships are still stranded in the Persian Gulf unable to transport oil and gas to global markets.
    • The Strait of Hormuz is not expected to fully reopen immediately, even if the deal is signed, with analysts warning of prolonged supply constraints.
    • US President Trump stated that Iran would face military action if it violates the agreement.
    • Iran stands to gain significant financial relief under the interim deal, including immediate access to sell oil.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Gas prices at the pump may remain elevated even after the deal is finalized, according to market analysts.
    • The Strait of Hormuz will never fully return to pre-conflict conditions, per industry experts.
    • Trump claims the deal achieves all US objectives, though critics question its long-term durability.
    • Oil prices may not drop sharply even if the strait reopens, due to ongoing geopolitical risks.
    confidence 88%