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Oil falls 4% after US-Iran talks signal easing supply risks

Crude oil prices have dropped to levels seen before the Iran war began. Improved tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a US sanctions waiver for Iranian exports have eased supply fears. Analysts suggest soft demand and restored flows could pressure Brent prices into 2027.

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What changed

Prices have reached a four-month low and returned to pre-war levels.

Live updates

  1. Oil prices hit four-month lows as US-Iran talks progress

    Crude oil prices have dropped to levels seen before the Iran war began. Improved tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a US sanctions waiver for Iranian exports have eased supply fears. Analysts suggest soft demand and restored flows could pressure Brent prices into 2027.

    What's confirmed:

    • Crude oil prices have fallen to a four-month low.
    • Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has improved.
    • Progress in US-Iran talks has eased supply fears.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • A US sanctions waiver is boosting Iranian exports.
    • Gulf producers are restoring output.
    • Brent prices could remain under pressure into 2027 due to softer demand and restored flows.
    confidence 90%
  2. Oil Prices Drop 4% as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears

    Oil prices fell 4% on Monday following statements from Vice President JD Vance regarding progress in talks with Iran. The decline follows confirmation that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Brent crude settled at $77.90 a barrel, down 3.31 per cent.

    What's confirmed:

    • Oil prices fell 4% on Monday.
    • Vice President JD Vance stated progress has been made in talks with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was open.
    • Brent crude settled at $77.90 a barrel, a decrease of $2.67 or 3.31 per cent.
    • The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq offered more oil to customers last week.

    Still unconfirmed:

    • Over 25 million barrels of Iranian oil are reportedly flowing again.
    • Iraq plans to restore crude production gradually.
    • Tehran announced a reconstruction plan and the release of frozen assets.
    confidence 90%