EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Traders Have A New Obsession: SpaceX And The 'All Things Elon' Trade
SpaceX has overtaken Tesla as the dominant focus of Elon Musk-linked investments, with traders betting heavily on its $75 billion IPO and potential merger with Tesla. Options activity on SpaceX is at record levels, while Tesla stock has dipped as investors shift focus. Ten SpaceX ETFs have launched, and institutional players expect a strong debut. Analysts warn of high risks tied to SpaceX’s valuation and merger prospects.
What changed
Traders are now prioritizing SpaceX over Tesla, with aggressive bets on SpaceX’s IPO and merger speculation driving volatility in both stocks.
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SpaceX Surges as 'All Things Elon' Trade Heats Up Ahead of Record IPO
confidence 92%SpaceX has overtaken Tesla as the dominant focus of Elon Musk-linked investments, with traders betting heavily on its $75 billion IPO and potential merger with Tesla. Options activity on SpaceX is at record levels, while Tesla stock has dipped as investors shift focus. Ten SpaceX ETFs have launched, and institutional players expect a strong debut. Analysts warn of high risks tied to SpaceX’s valuation and merger prospects.
What's confirmed:
- SpaceX has surpassed Tesla as the most valuable company in Elon Musk’s portfolio, following its record $75 billion IPO.
- Ten SpaceX-focused ETFs launched this week as the SPCX ticker debuted on markets, including leveraged products like the T-REX 2X Long SpaceX Daily Target ETF (SPAX).
- Options traders are placing bets on overnight gains of up to 80% for SpaceX, with unprecedented demand for call options.
- Institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, are expected to engineer a strong Day 1 pop for SpaceX’s IPO.
- Direxion CEO Douglas Yones confirmed retail and institutional investors are shifting from Tesla to SpaceX for Elon Musk exposure.
- Kalshi traders currently assign a 54% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will merge before May 2027, though merger risks remain high.
Still unconfirmed:
- Funds that held SpaceX shares pre-IPO may have sold aggressively ahead of the listing, though no confirmed data has been released.
- Tesla stock is reportedly under pressure from investors rotating positions into SpaceX ahead of its IPO, though no direct cause-and-effect link is verified.
- SpaceX’s valuation hinges on achieving two of three key milestones, including unspecified commercial or exploratory goals, according to a former Tesla board member.