Argus U.S-Iran Deal Won't Lead to One-Way Traffic to Plunging Oil Prices

Live updates

1. 1d ago

   Argus and Barclays Warn Against Expecting Immediate Oil Recovery After Iran Deal

   A preliminary peace framework between the U.S. and Iran aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that physical oil supply chains may take weeks to normalize. Market volatility remains a risk despite an initial drop in prices.

   What's confirmed:

   • The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework with a Memorandum of Understanding scheduled for signing on June 19, 2026, in Switzerland.
   • European natural gas prices fell approximately 6% following the announcement.
   • Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures traded at €43.60/MWh on Monday.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • David Fyfe of Argus Media warns of potential renewed volatility in crude markets.
   • Barclays suggests normalization of physical oil supply chains across the Strait of Hormuz could take weeks.
   • The closure of Hormuz cut off about 20% of the world's LNG supply.
   • Asian spot prices briefly spiked past $20/MMBtu after the disruption began.
   confidence 85%
2. 3d ago

   Oil Prices Dip Following U.S.-Iran Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

   Energy prices fell and stocks rose after the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are currently evaluating if this agreement will successfully restore traffic. Market volatility remains a concern as the ceasefire holds.

   What's confirmed:

   • The U.S. and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Oil prices fell following the announcement of the peace agreement.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • The U.S. is nearing a deal with Iran to restore traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
   • The U.S.-Iran ceasefire survived the long weekend.
   confidence 90%
3. 4d ago

   U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Faces Supply Hurdles Despite Initial Oil Price Dip

   The U.S. and Iran have signed a peace agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices initially slipped, experts warn that global energy supplies will take months to recover. Volatility is expected to persist due to slow refining and production restarts.

   What's confirmed:

   • The U.S. and Iran signed a peace agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
   • Oil prices have fallen following the peace deal.
   • The agreement includes easing sanctions on Iran and a 60-day deadline to restart nuclear talks.

   Still unconfirmed:

   • The deal may lead to a return of $3 gasoline.
   confidence 90%